The High Boskage House Baseball-Analysis Web Site
baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately

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2012 ARI Projected
pitching results to date:

About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of appearances to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines--"projected" and actual--is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (plate appearances) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games as shown in the Tables.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Albaladejo, Jonathan 201 2: 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Albaladejo, Jonathan pro j: 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Breslow, Craig 2012: 65 10 1 0 1 8 0 0 0 16 0 1 73
Breslow, Craig proj: 64 14 3 0 1 7 0 1 0 15 1 1 72
Cahill, Trevor 2012: 159 36 8 0 1 18 1 1 3 25 3 1 182
Cahill, Trevor proj: 162 41 8 1 5 16 1 1 1 26 4 2 181
Collmenter, Josh 2012: 101 31 3 1 6 6 0 2 0 21 2 1 109
Collmenter, Josh proj: 101 25 4 0 3 5 0 2 1 18 1 1 109
Corbin, Patrick 2012: 87 25 2 2 2 7 1 0 1 15 1 1 96
Corbin, Patrick proj: 87 25 2 2 2 7 1 0 1 15 1 1 96
Hernandez, David 2012: 63 12 1 0 2 4 0 0 1 24 2 0 68
Hernandez, David proj: 60 15 3 0 2 7 0 0 0 14 1 0 67
Hudson, Daniel 2012: 71 21 3 0 5 8 0 1 0 12 1 0 80
Hudson, Daniel proj: 73 18 4 0 2 5 0 0 1 15 1 1 79
Kennedy, Ian 2012: 200 54 13 4 5 13 2 3 2 42 1 0 220
Kennedy, Ian proj: 196 46 11 1 6 17 2 2 2 45 2 1 219
Martinez, Joe 2012: 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 5
Martinez, Joe proj: 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 4
Miley, Wade 2012: 150 35 9 1 2 12 0 0 2 27 0 2 164
Miley, Wade proj: 147 40 10 0 4 14 0 1 1 25 1 2 163
Paterson, Joe 2012: 23 15 4 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 26
Paterson, Joe proj: 22 6 1 0 0 3 0 1 1 4 0 0 27
Putz, J.J. 2012: 49 16 5 0 4 0 0 0 1 12 0 0 50
Putz, J.J. proj: 45 10 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 13 1 0 49
Saunders, Joe 2012: 171 45 7 0 5 11 0 1 1 27 2 5 184
Saunders, Joe proj: 167 46 8 1 5 14 1 1 1 24 3 2 184
Shaw, Bryan 2012: 52 11 1 1 2 4 0 1 1 11 0 1 58
Shaw, Bryan proj: 52 13 1 0 1 4 0 0 2 11 0 1 58
Zagurski, Mike 2012: 33 8 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 6 0 1 33
Zagurski, Mike proj: 28 8 2 0 1 3 0 0 1 7 0 0 32
Ziegler, Brad 2012: 56 13 1 1 0 8 0 0 0 10 1 0 64
Ziegler, Brad proj: 57 14 3 0 0 6 1 0 0 10 1 0 64
2012 TEAM TOTALS: 1289 336 62 11 39 102 4 9 12 250 13 13 1416
PROJECTED: 1268 323 62 5 33 112 6 9 12 244 17 12 1407
difference: +21 +13 0 +6 +6 -10 -2 0 0 +6 -4 +1 +9
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .261 .255
Slugging Average: .417 .390
Walks (per PA): .072 .079
SOs (per PA): .177 .172
On-Base Average: .318 .318
Power Factor: 1.6 1.53
OPS: .734 .707
TPP Runs (to date): 165 154

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 11 more than Projected TPP.







You loaded this page on Thursday, 17 May 2012, at 9:59 pm EDT;
it was last modified on Thursday, 17 May 2012, at 9:07 am EDT.

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(team and player performance evaluations, updated daily)
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(miscellaneous but not unimportant)
Some Miscellaneous Information:
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    The Pitfalls of Park Factors
 an explicit, detailed demonstration of how and why they are so dubious
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