The High Boskage House Baseball-Analysis Web Site
baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately

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2012 ATL Projected
pitching results to date:

About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of appearances to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines--"projected" and actual--is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (plate appearances) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games as shown in the Tables.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Beachy, Brandon 2012: 160 29 5 0 1 14 1 1 0 33 3 2 176
Beachy, Brandon proj: 158 36 6 1 4 14 1 1 1 46 4 1 175
Delgado, Randall 2012: 150 36 10 0 3 18 2 2 2 35 0 3 174
Delgado, Randall proj: 153 35 7 0 4 17 1 1 2 29 1 2 174
Durbin, Chad 2012: 58 17 2 0 5 7 0 0 0 10 0 0 65
Durbin, Chad proj: 57 16 3 0 2 6 1 0 1 10 1 0 65
Hanson, Tommy 2012: 168 44 6 0 5 19 0 4 2 43 7 1 193
Hanson, Tommy proj: 173 40 8 1 4 15 1 2 2 44 8 1 193
Hernandez, Livan 2012: 85 25 3 0 2 6 2 3 0 14 1 1 96
Hernandez, Livan proj: 86 24 4 1 2 7 1 1 1 14 1 1 96
Hudson, Tim 2012: 95 26 6 1 1 7 0 4 1 16 0 0 107
Hudson, Tim proj: 97 24 4 1 2 8 1 1 1 17 2 1 108
Jurrjens, Jair 2012: 73 30 5 0 5 10 0 1 0 8 6 2 84
Jurrjens, Jair proj: 75 19 4 1 2 7 0 1 0 14 2 1 83
Kimbrel, Craig 2012: 51 10 1 0 0 10 0 0 0 23 1 0 61
Kimbrel, Craig proj: 53 9 1 0 0 8 0 0 0 25 1 0 61
Martinez, Cristhian 2012 : 8 1 2 1 9 0 2 3 0 0 0 1 6 1 0 8
Martinez, Cristhian proj : 7 8 1 8 5 0 2 5 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 8
Medlen, Kris 2012: 81 18 1 1 0 6 0 0 0 11 0 0 87
Medlen, Kris proj: 79 20 4 0 2 6 1 1 1 18 1 0 88
Minor, Mike 2012: 179 53 9 1 8 15 4 3 2 44 6 0 203
Minor, Mike proj: 183 54 14 1 6 15 2 2 1 44 3 1 203
O'Flaherty, Eric 2012: 58 19 1 0 2 6 0 2 1 14 0 0 67
O'Flaherty, Eric proj: 59 15 2 0 1 6 0 1 1 12 1 0 67
Venters, Jonny 2012: 56 17 4 0 1 6 0 1 1 22 1 0 64
Venters, Jonny proj: 55 11 1 0 0 7 0 1 1 18 0 0 64
2012 TEAM TOTALS: 1295 345 62 3 35 127 9 21 9 289 26 9 1461
PROJECTED: 1306 321 63 6 31 121 9 12 12 307 25 8 1460
difference: -11 +24 -1 -3 +4 +6 0 +9 -3 -18 +1 +1 +1
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .266 .246
Slugging Average: .400 .374
Walks (per PA): .087 .083
SOs (per PA): .198 .210
On-Base Average: .329 .311
Power Factor: 1.5 1.52
OPS: .729 .685
TPP Runs (to date): 172 154

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 18 more than Projected TPP.







You loaded this page on Thursday, 17 May 2012, at 10:02 pm EDT;
it was last modified on Thursday, 17 May 2012, at 9:07 am EDT.

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(team and player performance evaluations, updated daily)
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(meanings and explanations of the things on this site)
Baseball-Analysis Background:
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 why baseball before and after 1993 is really two different games
    Fielding and Defense in Baseball
 how important defense is or isn't in baseball, and how to correctly evaluate it
    Baseball Data Normalization:
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    "Steroids" and Other "Performance-Enhancing Drugs":
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(miscellaneous but not unimportant)
Some Miscellaneous Information:
    The Team-Performance Table
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    The HBH Baseball-Analysis Formula Tested
 what we get when we apply it to half a century of team stats
    The Pitfalls of Park Factors
 an explicit, detailed demonstration of how and why they are so dubious
    About High Boskage House
 who we are and why we might know what we're talking about
    Links About Eric Walker
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