The High Boskage House Baseball-Analysis Web Site
baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately

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2012 BOS Projected
pitching results to date:

About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of appearances to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines--"projected" and actual--is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (plate appearances) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games as shown in the Tables.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Aceves, Alfredo 2012: 60 15 3 0 1 8 1 1 3 20 1 0 73
Aceves, Alfredo proj: 65 14 3 0 2 6 0 0 2 13 2 0 73
Albers, Matt 2012: 56 10 1 0 2 4 0 0 1 8 1 0 61
Albers, Matt proj: 53 14 3 0 1 6 1 1 1 10 1 0 62
Atchison, Scott 2012: 85 17 3 0 1 4 2 0 0 18 0 0 91
Atchison, Scott proj: 82 21 5 0 2 6 1 1 0 18 2 1 90
Bard, Daniel 2012: 144 38 9 0 1 20 0 1 2 23 4 1 167
Bard, Daniel proj: 145 30 6 1 3 17 1 2 2 41 4 1 167
Beckett, Josh 2012: 164 41 10 0 9 13 1 1 0 35 4 0 179
Beckett, Josh proj: 162 39 8 1 5 13 1 1 2 40 3 1 179
Bowden, Michael 2012: 10 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 11
Bowden, Michael proj: 10 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 11
Buchholz, Clay 2012: 183 61 9 0 10 23 1 1 4 25 2 0 212
Buchholz, Clay proj: 187 48 8 1 5 21 2 1 2 37 3 1 213
Cook, Aaron 2012: 15 8 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 16
Cook, Aaron proj: 14 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 15
Doubront, Felix 2012: 149 38 10 1 3 17 1 0 1 37 3 0 168
Doubront, Felix proj: 147 39 9 2 4 18 2 1 1 34 3 2 169
Hill, Rich 2012: 24 2 1 0 0 5 0 0 0 7 1 0 29
Hill, Rich proj: 25 6 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 6 1 0 28
Lester, Jon 2012: 190 47 10 2 3 18 1 1 1 34 1 0 211
Lester, Jon proj: 188 46 9 1 4 19 2 1 2 46 4 2 212
Melancon, Mark 2012: 15 10 1 0 5 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 18
Melancon, Mark proj: 16 4 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 18
Miller, Andrew 2012: 19 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 7 0 0 21
Miller, Andrew proj: 18 5 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 4 1 0 21
Morales, Franklin 2012: 52 16 1 0 0 5 1 0 3 8 0 0 61
Morales, Franklin proj: 51 13 2 0 1 7 1 1 1 11 1 0 61
Mortensen, Clayton 2012: 33 6 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 33
Mortensen, Clayton proj: 29 8 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 5 1 0 32
Padilla, Vicente 2012: 60 17 3 1 2 4 0 0 0 15 1 0 64
Padilla, Vicente proj: 57 15 3 0 2 5 0 1 1 10 0 0 64
Tazawa, Junichi 2012: 25 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 1 0 27
Tazawa, Junichi proj: 24 8 2 0 1 2 0 0 1 3 0 0 27
Thomas, Justin 2012: 21 10 3 0 0 2 1 0 1 4 1 1 25
Thomas, Justin proj: 22 9 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 24
2012 TEAM TOTALS: 1305 346 68 4 40 128 11 5 18 261 20 3 1467
PROJECTED: 1295 326 66 6 33 135 11 10 15 289 26 8 1466
difference: +10 +20 +2 -2 +7 -7 0 -5 +3 -28 -6 -5 +1
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .265 .252
Slugging Average: .415 .388
Walks (per PA): .087 .092
SOs (per PA): .178 .197
On-Base Average: .335 .325
Power Factor: 1.57 1.54
OPS: .751 .713
TPP Runs (to date): 182 166

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 16 more than Projected TPP.







You loaded this page on Thursday, 17 May 2012, at 10:04 pm EDT;
it was last modified on Thursday, 17 May 2012, at 9:07 am EDT.

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(miscellaneous but not unimportant)
Some Miscellaneous Information:
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    The Pitfalls of Park Factors
 an explicit, detailed demonstration of how and why they are so dubious
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