The High Boskage House Baseball-Analysis Web Site
baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately

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2012 TOR Projected
pitching results to date:

About These Stats:

The form of "projection" used is very simple: each man's career numbers are pro-rated by his actual number of appearances to date this season; those data, labelled "proj:" are shown along with the man's actual stats from this year to date. At the bottom of the Table, each set of lines--"projected" and actual--is separately summed to get Team Totals for each dataset.

Note that "career to date" includes each man's stats for the current year: "to date" is literally correct. For veteran players, that matters little, but for rookies or players with litle prior major-league experience, it means that the "projection" will perforce nearly or exactly match the actual stats to date. That seems like the best way to deal with newly arrived players' stats.

Note that owing to rounding in the pro-rating process, projected total BFP (plate appearances) may occasionally differ by 1.

Below the player/team table is a smaller table showing a few key team "rate" stats (such as batting average) actual and projected.

The Actual Data:

Through games as shown in the Tables.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP
Alvarez, Henderson 2012: 205 50 10 0 8 13 0 1 3 15 1 0 222
Alvarez, Henderson proj: 207 53 10 1 7 10 1 1 3 25 1 1 222
Carreno, Joel 2012: 45 11 2 0 2 9 0 0 0 6 1 1 54
Carreno, Joel proj: 48 11 2 0 1 6 0 0 0 10 0 1 54
Cordero, Francisco 2012: 60 22 3 0 4 7 0 2 1 11 1 0 70
Cordero, Francisco proj: 61 15 3 0 1 7 1 1 1 16 1 1 71
Crawford, Evan 2012: 18 5 1 0 2 3 0 1 0 5 1 0 22
Crawford, Evan proj: 18 5 1 0 2 3 0 1 0 5 1 0 22
Drabek, Kyle 2012: 168 38 13 0 6 28 1 0 1 38 0 2 198
Drabek, Kyle proj: 166 45 11 1 6 28 3 1 1 32 3 2 199
Frasor, Jason 2012: 50 10 6 0 0 10 1 0 0 17 3 1 61
Frasor, Jason proj: 53 13 3 0 1 6 1 0 1 13 1 0 61
Hutchison, Drew 2012: 112 32 7 1 3 10 1 0 1 21 2 0 124
Hutchison, Drew proj: 112 32 7 1 3 10 1 0 1 21 2 0 124
Janssen, Casey 2012: 50 11 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 14 0 1 51
Janssen, Casey proj: 47 13 3 0 1 3 0 0 1 8 0 0 51
Morrow, Brandon 2012: 190 38 13 0 7 16 2 1 0 46 3 0 209
Morrow, Brandon proj: 181 42 10 1 5 23 2 1 2 53 3 2 209
Oliver, Darren 2012: 41 8 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 11 1 1 42
Oliver, Darren proj: 37 10 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 6 1 0 41
Perez, Luis 2012: 68 14 1 0 1 8 0 0 3 21 0 1 79
Perez, Luis proj: 69 19 4 0 2 7 1 0 2 16 0 1 79
Romero, Ricky 2012: 194 43 9 0 6 26 1 1 1 36 3 1 223
Romero, Ricky proj: 197 48 10 0 5 21 1 2 3 42 3 2 224
Santos, Sergio 2012: 19 6 2 0 1 4 1 0 0 4 2 0 24
Santos, Sergio proj: 21 5 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 7 1 0 24
Villanueva, Carlos 2012: 51 10 1 0 2 11 0 0 1 14 0 1 63
Villanueva, Carlos proj: 56 14 3 0 2 5 0 1 1 12 1 0 63
2012 TEAM TOTALS: 1271 298 69 1 46 147 7 6 11 259 18 9 1442
PROJECTED: 1273 325 70 4 37 136 11 8 16 266 18 10 1444
difference: -2 -27 -1 -3 +9 +11 -4 -2 -5 -7 0 -1 -2
Man AB H 2B 3B HR BB SF SH HBP SO SB CS BFP


Assorted Team Stats:
Stat Actual Projected
Batting Average: .234 .255
Slugging Average: .399 .404
Walks (per PA): .102 .094
SOs (per PA): .180 .184
On-Base Average: .316 .330
Power Factor: 1.7 1.58
OPS: .715 .734
TPP Runs (to date): 161 168

Runs differential:
Actual TPP 7 less than Projected TPP.







You loaded this page on Thursday, 17 May 2012, at 10:37 pm EDT;
it was last modified on Thursday, 17 May 2012, at 9:07 am EDT.

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(team and player performance evaluations, updated daily)
The Performance Stats:
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(meanings and explanations of the things on this site)
Baseball-Analysis Background:
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 a semi-technical backgrounding on modern baseball analysis
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    The "Quality of Pitching" Measures:
 why they are the best way to evaluate pitching
    The SillyBall:
 why baseball before and after 1993 is really two different games
    Fielding and Defense in Baseball
 how important defense is or isn't in baseball, and how to correctly evaluate it
    Baseball Data Normalization:
 why raw stats need "correction", and how and why we can and cannot apply it
    "Steroids" and Other "Performance-Enhancing Drugs":
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(now a full-fledged site of its own)



(miscellaneous but not unimportant)
Some Miscellaneous Information:
    The Team-Performance Table
 there is a lot in that Table, and this explains what it all is
    The HBH Baseball-Analysis Formula Tested
 what we get when we apply it to half a century of team stats
    The Pitfalls of Park Factors
 an explicit, detailed demonstration of how and why they are so dubious
    About High Boskage House
 who we are and why we might know what we're talking about
    Links About Eric Walker
 links to baseball-related pages concerning the webmaster here
    Links To A Select Few Other Useful Baseball Sites
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