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2015 Major-League Team Performance Results

Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games as shown in the Tables.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and--although there are a few words farther below on this page--we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Detroit.910147
Kansas City.875142
LA Dodgers.741120
Oakland.714116
Chicago Cubs.622101
St. Louis.620100
Baltimore.617100
San Diego.582 94
Atlanta.574 93
Boston.558 90
NY Mets.551 89
Tampa Bay.530 86
Washington.520 84
Houston.511 83
NY Yankees.509 82
Cincinnati.500 81
Arizona.491 80
Pittsburgh.488 79
Toronto.458 74
Seattle.448 73
Colorado.439 71
Miami.398 64
Cleveland.367 59
San Francisco.367 59
LA Angels.308 50
Chicago Sox.296 48
Texas.283 46
Philadelphia.269 44
Minnesota.252 41
Milwaukee.146 24

 

Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)



Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Atlanta         .574 Chicago Cubs    .622 LA Dodgers      .741 Baltimore       .617 Detroit         .910 Oakland         .714
NY Mets         .551 * St. Louis     .620 * San Diego     .582 * Boston        .558 * Kansas City   .875 Houston         .511
Washington      .520 Cincinnati      .500 Arizona         .491 Tampa Bay       .530 Cleveland       .367 Seattle         .448
Miami           .398 Pittsburgh      .488 Colorado        .439 NY Yankees      .509 Chicago Sox     .296 LA Angels       .308
Philadelphia    .269 Milwaukee       .146 San Francisco   .367 Toronto         .458 Minnesota       .252 Texas           .283
           

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
NY Mets         .769 St. Louis       .727 LA Dodgers      .750 Boston          .615 Detroit         .846 Houston         .538
* Atlanta       .667 Chicago Cubs    .583 * San Diego     .643 * Baltimore     .538 * Kansas City   .769 Oakland         .500
Washington      .462 Pittsburgh      .462 Arizona         .538 Toronto         .462 Chicago Sox     .417 Texas           .385
Philadelphia    .308 Cincinnati      .462 Colorado        .538 NY Yankees      .462 Minnesota       .385 Seattle         .385
Miami           .231 Milwaukee       .154 San Francisco   .286 Tampa Bay       .462 Cleveland       .333 LA Angels       .385
           


 

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the HBH formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources--actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games--"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column--"Seasonal"--is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.


Team Performance Stats Table

Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona 13 56 60 57 49 7 8 -1 6 1 7
Atlanta 12 51 54 44 44 8 7 1 7 1 15
Baltimore 13 62 62 49 60 7 7 0 8 -1 -13
Boston 13 64 70 57 65 8 7 1 7 1 10
Chicago Cubs 12 55 50 43 45 7 7 0 7 0 -6
Chicago Sox 12 39 42 59 55 5 4 1 4 1 20
Cincinnati 13 49 43 49 51 6 5 1 7 -1 -6
Cleveland 12 39 38 51 50 4 4 0 4 0 -5
Colorado 13 54 54 61 59 7 6 1 6 1 16
Detroit 13 74 70 31 36 11 10 1 12 -1 -10
Houston 13 47 41 46 45 7 6 1 7 0 4
Kansas City 13 77 75 35 41 10 10 0 11 -1 -17
LA Angels 13 40 46 59 56 5 5 0 4 1 12
LA Dodgers 12 72 63 44 46 9 8 1 9 0 2
Miami 13 44 50 54 65 3 5 -2 5 -2 -27
Milwaukee 13 31 31 65 71 2 2 0 2 0 1
Minnesota 13 38 40 63 66 5 3 2 3 2 21
NY Mets 13 52 57 47 41 10 8 2 7 3 36
NY Yankees 13 56 65 55 58 6 7 -1 7 -1 -7
Oakland 14 68 73 44 46 7 10 -3 10 -3 -35
Philadelphia 13 40 32 64 56 4 3 1 4 0 6
Pittsburgh 13 40 48 41 42 6 7 -1 6 0 -4
San Diego 14 66 73 56 50 9 9 0 8 1 10
Seattle 13 55 52 61 69 5 5 0 6 -1 -11
San Francisco 14 49 37 64 62 4 4 0 5 -1 -13
St. Louis 11 42 43 33 24 8 8 0 7 1 18
Tampa Bay 13 52 51 49 63 6 5 1 7 -1 -11
Texas 13 47 51 73 66 5 5 0 4 1 16
Toronto 13 57 70 62 61 6 7 -1 6 0 1
Washington 13 51 53 49 52 6 7 -1 7 -1 -9


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP4.7 runs9.2%-0.9 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP4.8 runs9.5%-1 runs
Games Won from R/OR0.8 wins---0.13 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP0.93 wins---0 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence--that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 5.4 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.






You loaded this page on Tuesday, 21 April 2015, at 9:05 am EDT;
it was last modified on Tuesday, 21 April 2015, at 9:01 am EDT.

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