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2015 Major-League Team Performance Results

Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games as shown in the Tables.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and--although there are a few words farther below on this page--we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
LA Dodgers.626101
Oakland.603 98
Houston.599 97
St. Louis.584 95
Pittsburgh.576 93
Toronto.563 91
Kansas City.563 91
Chicago Cubs.556 90
NY Yankees.554 90
Washington.551 89
San Francisco.544 88
Baltimore.534 86
Cincinnati.531 86
Cleveland.523 85
Detroit.513 83
Tampa Bay.502 81
Arizona.499 81
Texas.490 79
Miami.487 79
LA Angels.478 77
Boston.471 76
Seattle.459 74
NY Mets.457 74
Atlanta.442 72
Minnesota.424 69
San Diego.416 67
Colorado.415 67
Milwaukee.386 63
Chicago Sox.355 58
Philadelphia.312 50

 

Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)



Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .551 St. Louis       .584 LA Dodgers      .626 Toronto         .563 Kansas City     .563 Oakland         .603
Miami           .487 * Pittsburgh    .576 * San Francisco .544 * NY Yankees    .554 Cleveland       .523 * Houston       .599
NY Mets         .457 Chicago Cubs    .556 Arizona         .499 Baltimore       .534 Detroit         .513 Texas           .490
Atlanta         .442 Cincinnati      .531 San Diego       .416 Tampa Bay       .502 Minnesota       .424 LA Angels       .478
Philadelphia    .312 Milwaukee       .386 Colorado        .415 Boston          .471 Chicago Sox     .355 Seattle         .459
           

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .544 St. Louis       .654 LA Dodgers      .563 Baltimore       .532 Kansas City     .579 Houston         .580
NY Mets         .500 * Pittsburgh    .577 * San Francisco .525 * NY Yankees    .532 * Minnesota     .532 LA Angels       .519
Atlanta         .481 Chicago Cubs    .545 Arizona         .481 Toronto         .519 Detroit         .500 Texas           .513
Miami           .425 Cincinnati      .468 San Diego       .469 Tampa Bay       .519 Cleveland       .474 Seattle         .456
Philadelphia    .333 Milwaukee       .407 Colorado        .430 Boston          .457 Chicago Sox     .447 Oakland         .451
           


 

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the HBH formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources--actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games--"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column--"Seasonal"--is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.


Team Performance Stats Table

Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona 79 359 359 360 361 38 39 -1 39 -1 -3
Atlanta 79 302 311 339 339 38 36 2 35 3 6
Baltimore 79 337 359 315 314 42 44 -2 42 0 0
Boston 81 350 335 371 380 37 36 1 38 -1 -2
Chicago Cubs 77 323 304 289 289 42 40 2 43 -1 -2
Chicago Sox 76 263 266 352 340 34 29 5 27 7 14
Cincinnati 77 345 313 324 328 36 37 -1 41 -5 -10
Cleveland 78 332 317 317 338 37 37 0 41 -4 -8
Colorado 79 345 349 409 404 34 34 0 33 1 3
Detroit 78 360 338 351 352 39 37 2 40 -1 -2
Houston 81 355 362 291 303 47 47 0 49 -2 -3
Kansas City 76 320 322 282 276 44 43 1 43 1 3
LA Angels 79 292 303 305 305 41 39 2 38 3 7
LA Dodgers 80 357 340 277 275 45 48 -3 50 -5 -10
Miami 80 312 296 320 329 34 36 -2 39 -5 -10
Milwaukee 81 300 311 377 382 33 33 0 31 2 3
Minnesota 79 298 331 347 327 42 40 2 33 9 17
NY Mets 80 275 277 300 296 40 37 3 37 3 7
NY Yankees 79 378 368 339 346 42 42 0 44 -2 -4
Oakland 82 364 364 296 312 37 47-10 49-12 -25
Philadelphia 81 291 275 426 407 27 26 1 25 2 4
Pittsburgh 78 332 320 285 263 45 46 -1 45 0 0
San Diego 81 312 332 369 374 38 36 2 34 4 9
Seattle 79 281 267 305 310 36 34 2 36 0 0
San Francisco 80 357 341 327 321 42 42 0 44 -2 -3
St. Louis 78 330 314 279 225 51 51 0 46 5 11
Tampa Bay 81 302 291 301 293 42 40 2 41 1 3
Texas 80 348 346 355 340 41 41 0 39 2 4
Toronto 81 394 441 347 353 42 49 -7 46 -4 -7
Washington 79 341 344 308 314 43 43 0 44 -1 -1


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP13.6 runs4.1%2 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP9.4 runs3.1%2.2 runs
Games Won from R/OR1.8 wins---0 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP2.97 wins----0.1 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence--that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 13.6 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.



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