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2014 Major-League Team Performance Results

Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games as shown in the Tables.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and--although there are a few words farther below on this page--we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
LA Angels.612 99
Oakland.609 99
Washington.598 97
LA Dodgers.594 96
Baltimore.561 91
San Francisco.552 89
Pittsburgh.552 89
Seattle.543 88
Detroit.538 87
Tampa Bay.526 85
St. Louis.520 84
Toronto.519 84
Cleveland.509 82
Atlanta.504 82
Kansas City.497 80
Milwaukee.487 79
Miami.482 78
NY Yankees.477 77
Chicago Cubs.468 76
Cincinnati.467 76
Houston.461 75
Colorado.456 74
NY Mets.454 74
Philadelphia.453 73
Chicago Sox.449 73
Minnesota.446 72
Boston.441 71
Arizona.434 70
San Diego.423 69
Texas.377 61

 

Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)



Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .598 Pittsburgh      .552 LA Dodgers      .594 Baltimore       .561 Detroit         .538 LA Angels       .612
Atlanta         .504 * St. Louis     .520 * San Francisco .552 * Tampa Bay     .526 Cleveland       .509 * Oakland       .609
Miami           .482 Milwaukee       .487 Colorado        .456 Toronto         .519 Kansas City     .497 Seattle         .543
NY Mets         .454 Chicago Cubs    .468 Arizona         .434 NY Yankees      .477 Chicago Sox     .449 Houston         .461
Philadelphia    .453 Cincinnati      .467 San Diego       .423 Boston          .441 Minnesota       .446 Texas           .377
           

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .577 St. Louis       .553 LA Dodgers      .573 Baltimore       .600 Detroit         .560 LA Angels       .627
Atlanta         .500 * Pittsburgh    .530 * San Francisco .547 Toronto         .517 * Kansas City   .547 * Oakland       .557
Miami           .490 Milwaukee       .520 San Diego       .463 NY Yankees      .510 Cleveland       .507 Seattle         .537
NY Mets         .477 Cincinnati      .470 Arizona         .413 Tampa Bay       .483 Chicago Sox     .453 Houston         .447
Philadelphia    .460 Chicago Cubs    .440 Colorado        .393 Boston          .440 Minnesota       .420 Texas           .383
           


 

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the HBH formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources--actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games--"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column--"Seasonal"--is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.


Team Performance Stats Table

Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona150 584 578 666 681 62 63 -1 65 -3 -3
Atlanta150 577 547 572 550 75 75 0 76 -1 -1
Baltimore150 669 655 592 552 90 87 3 84 6 6
Boston150 586 580 660 661 66 66 0 66 0 0
Chicago Cubs150 573 563 611 649 66 65 1 70 -4 -5
Chicago Sox150 618 617 685 707 68 65 3 67 1 0
Cincinnati151 561 559 599 571 71 74 -3 71 0 0
Cleveland150 641 628 630 622 76 76 0 76 0 0
Colorado150 694 674 758 769 59 66 -7 68 -9 -10
Detroit150 705 711 653 654 84 81 3 81 3 4
Houston150 606 591 655 679 67 65 2 69 -2 -3
Kansas City150 584 599 588 580 82 77 5 74 8 9
LA Angels150 694 737 554 573 94 93 1 92 2 3
LA Dodgers150 665 637 551 547 86 86 0 89 -3 -3
Miami149 617 608 639 625 73 72 1 72 1 1
Milwaukee150 617 625 633 625 78 75 3 73 5 5
Minnesota150 648 658 722 728 63 68 -5 67 -4 -4
NY Mets151 574 578 629 591 72 74 -2 69 3 3
NY Yankees149 593 577 621 607 76 71 5 71 5 6
Oakland149 647 685 520 523 83 93-10 91 -8 -9
Philadelphia150 592 583 650 643 69 68 1 68 1 2
Pittsburgh149 674 635 607 601 79 78 1 82 -3 -3
San Diego149 481 482 561 533 69 67 2 63 6 6
Seattle149 556 581 510 488 80 87 -7 81 -1 -1
San Francisco150 617 625 556 564 82 82 0 83 -1 0
St. Louis150 589 578 566 568 83 76 7 78 5 6
Tampa Bay151 603 579 572 574 73 76 -3 79 -6 -7
Texas149 570 579 730 735 57 58 -1 56 1 1
Toronto149 679 669 654 638 77 78 -1 77 0 0
Washington149 649 640 533 520 86 89 -3 89 -3 -3


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP14.6 runs2.3%3.5 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP14.4 runs2.4%4 runs
Games Won from R/OR2.7 wins----0.17 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP3.17 wins----0.03 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence--that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 18.6 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.






You loaded this page on Tuesday, 16 September 2014, at 1:27 pm EDT;
it was last modified on Tuesday, 16 September 2014, at 9:01 am EDT.

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