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2014 Major-League Team Performance Results

Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games as shown in the Tables.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and--although there are a few words farther below on this page--we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Washington.613 99
Oakland.602 98
LA Angels.594 96
LA Dodgers.589 95
Pittsburgh.564 91
Baltimore.561 91
San Francisco.545 88
Detroit.533 86
Seattle.530 86
Toronto.517 84
Cleveland.515 83
Tampa Bay.514 83
St. Louis.511 83
Kansas City.504 82
Milwaukee.490 79
Atlanta.483 78
NY Yankees.482 78
Colorado.474 77
NY Mets.471 76
Chicago Cubs.469 76
Miami.466 75
Cincinnati.463 75
Houston.458 74
Minnesota.453 73
Philadelphia.453 73
Chicago Sox.444 72
Boston.442 72
San Diego.438 71
Arizona.432 70
Texas.396 64

 

Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)



Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .613 Pittsburgh      .564 LA Dodgers      .589 Baltimore       .561 Detroit         .533 Oakland         .602
Atlanta         .483 * St. Louis     .511 * San Francisco .545 * Toronto       .517 Cleveland       .515 * LA Angels     .594
NY Mets         .471 Milwaukee       .490 Colorado        .474 Tampa Bay       .514 Kansas City     .504 Seattle         .530
Miami           .466 Chicago Cubs    .469 San Diego       .438 NY Yankees      .482 Minnesota       .453 Houston         .458
Philadelphia    .453 Cincinnati      .463 Arizona         .432 Boston          .442 Chicago Sox     .444 Texas           .396
           

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .593 St. Louis       .556 LA Dodgers      .580 Baltimore       .593 Detroit         .556 LA Angels       .605
Atlanta         .488 * Pittsburgh    .543 * San Francisco .543 NY Yankees      .519 * Kansas City   .549 * Oakland       .543
NY Mets         .488 Milwaukee       .506 San Diego       .475 Toronto         .512 Cleveland       .525 Seattle         .537
Miami           .475 Cincinnati      .469 Colorado        .407 Tampa Bay       .475 Chicago Sox     .451 Houston         .432
Philadelphia    .451 Chicago Cubs    .451 Arizona         .395 Boston          .438 Minnesota       .432 Texas           .414
           


 

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the HBH formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources--actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games--"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column--"Seasonal"--is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.


Team Performance Stats Table

Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona162 626 615 718 742 64 67 -3 70 -6 -6
Atlanta162 603 573 624 597 79 78 1 78 1 1
Baltimore162 717 705 635 593 96 94 2 91 5 5
Boston162 634 634 712 715 71 72 -1 72 -1 -1
Chicago Cubs162 623 614 663 707 73 70 3 76 -3 -3
Chicago Sox162 662 660 740 758 73 70 3 72 1 1
Cincinnati162 591 595 637 612 76 79 -3 75 1 1
Cleveland162 684 669 664 653 85 83 2 83 2 2
Colorado162 769 755 810 818 66 75 -9 77-11 -11
Detroit162 752 757 704 705 90 86 4 86 4 4
Houston162 646 629 702 723 70 70 0 74 -4 -4
Kansas City162 640 651 635 624 89 84 5 82 7 7
LA Angels162 726 773 601 630 98 96 2 96 2 2
LA Dodgers162 735 718 615 617 94 92 2 95 -1 -1
Miami162 650 645 696 674 77 78 -1 75 2 2
Milwaukee162 651 650 664 657 82 80 2 79 3 3
Minnesota162 702 715 772 777 70 75 -5 73 -3 -3
NY Mets162 622 629 659 618 79 82 -3 76 3 3
NY Yankees162 644 633 668 664 84 77 7 78 6 6
Oakland162 690 729 562 572 88 99-11 98-10 -10
Philadelphia162 633 619 696 687 73 73 0 73 0 0
Pittsburgh162 729 682 641 631 88 87 1 91 -3 -3
San Diego162 533 535 604 577 77 75 2 71 6 6
Seattle162 604 634 569 554 87 91 -4 86 1 1
San Francisco162 654 665 598 614 88 87 1 88 0 0
St. Louis162 622 619 608 603 90 83 7 83 7 7
Tampa Bay162 635 612 617 625 77 79 -2 83 -6 -6
Texas162 623 637 768 773 67 66 1 64 3 3
Toronto162 726 723 702 686 83 85 -2 84 -1 -1
Washington162 702 686 560 555 96 97 -1 99 -3 -3


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP14.4 runs2.2%2.2 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP15.7 runs2.4%2.8 runs
Games Won from R/OR3 wins---0 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP3.53 wins---0.07 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence--that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 19.3 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.






You loaded this page on Wednesday, 22 October 2014, at 12:44 am EDT;
it was last modified on Monday, 29 September 2014, at 9:01 am EDT.

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