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2014 Major-League Team Performance Results

Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games as shown in the Tables.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and--although there are a few words farther below on this page--we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Atlanta.732119
Oakland.640104
NY Yankees.632102
Milwaukee.628102
Cincinnati.600 97
LA Angels.596 97
St. Louis.582 94
LA Dodgers.567 92
Seattle.562 91
Chicago Sox.550 89
Colorado.546 89
San Francisco.537 87
Minnesota.520 84
Detroit.500 81
Washington.500 81
Pittsburgh.493 80
Miami.493 80
San Diego.490 79
Kansas City.479 78
Texas.477 77
Cleveland.464 75
Toronto.442 72
Tampa Bay.432 70
Boston.422 68
Philadelphia.413 67
Baltimore.409 66
NY Mets.387 63
Chicago Cubs.377 61
Arizona.311 50
Houston.280 45

 

Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)



Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Atlanta         .732 Milwaukee       .628 LA Dodgers      .567 NY Yankees      .632 Chicago Sox     .550 Oakland         .640
Washington      .500 * Cincinnati    .600 Colorado        .546 Toronto         .442 Minnesota       .520 * LA Angels     .596
Miami           .493 St. Louis       .582 San Francisco   .537 Tampa Bay       .432 Detroit         .500 Seattle         .562
Philadelphia    .413 Pittsburgh      .493 San Diego       .490 Boston          .422 Kansas City     .479 Texas           .477
NY Mets         .387 Chicago Cubs    .377 Arizona         .311 Baltimore       .409 Cleveland       .464 Houston         .280
           

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Atlanta         .667 Milwaukee       .688 San Francisco   .625 NY Yankees      .625 Detroit         .583 Oakland         .667
Washington      .563 * St. Louis     .625 LA Dodgers      .625 Toronto         .500 Minnesota       .533 * Texas         .563
NY Mets         .533 Pittsburgh      .500 Colorado        .471 Baltimore       .500 Kansas City     .500 Seattle         .467
Philadelphia    .467 Cincinnati      .400 San Diego       .438 Boston          .438 Chicago Sox     .500 LA Angels       .467
Miami           .375 Chicago Cubs    .286 Arizona         .222 Tampa Bay       .438 Cleveland       .467 Houston         .313
           


 

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the HBH formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources--actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games--"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column--"Seasonal"--is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.


Team Performance Stats Table

Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona 18 73 67 107 115 4 5 -1 6 -2 -14
Atlanta 15 69 56 43 40 10 10 0 11 -1 -11
Baltimore 14 55 56 66 57 7 7 0 6 1 15
Boston 16 59 56 69 60 7 7 0 7 0 3
Chicago Cubs 14 50 47 64 60 4 5 -1 5 -1 -15
Chicago Sox 16 84 87 76 86 8 8 0 9 -1 -8
Cincinnati 15 66 58 54 51 6 8 -2 9 -3 -32
Cleveland 15 67 69 72 72 7 7 0 7 0 1
Colorado 17 79 82 72 81 8 9 -1 9 -1 -13
Detroit 12 50 49 50 47 7 6 1 6 1 14
Houston 16 46 45 72 74 5 4 1 4 1 6
Kansas City 14 46 47 48 53 7 6 1 7 0 3
LA Angels 15 80 83 66 71 7 9 -2 9 -2 -21
LA Dodgers 16 72 67 63 55 10 9 1 9 1 9
Miami 16 75 76 76 75 6 8 -2 8 -2 -19
Milwaukee 16 66 65 51 51 11 10 1 10 1 9
Minnesota 15 75 86 72 78 8 8 0 8 0 2
NY Mets 15 59 68 74 68 8 7 1 6 2 23
NY Yankees 16 77 64 59 56 10 9 1 10 0 -1
Oakland 15 69 68 52 48 10 10 0 10 0 4
Philadelphia 15 68 63 81 72 7 7 0 6 1 9
Pittsburgh 16 67 68 68 63 8 9 -1 8 0 1
San Diego 16 51 45 52 54 7 7 0 8 -1 -8
Seattle 15 60 61 53 50 7 9 -2 8 -1 -15
San Francisco 16 70 72 65 61 10 9 1 9 1 14
St. Louis 16 66 67 56 54 10 10 0 9 1 7
Tampa Bay 16 55 47 63 63 7 6 1 7 0 1
Texas 16 65 62 68 69 9 7 2 8 1 14
Toronto 16 65 66 73 66 8 8 0 7 1 9
Washington 16 77 77 77 74 9 8 1 8 1 10


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP3.9 runs6.3%1.2 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP4.5 runs7%1.3 runs
Games Won from R/OR0.8 wins---0 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP0.93 wins----0.07 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence--that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 6 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.






You loaded this page on Friday, 18 April 2014, at 3:11 pm EDT;
it was last modified on Friday, 18 April 2014, at 9:01 am EDT.

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