The High Boskage House Baseball-Analysis Web Site
baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately

  email me search site site directory  

2015 Major-League Team Performance Results

Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games as shown in the Tables.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and--although there are a few words farther below on this page--we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
LA Dodgers.606 98
Houston.590 96
NY Yankees.582 94
St. Louis.575 93
Toronto.569 92
Oakland.557 90
San Francisco.556 90
Kansas City.540 87
Pittsburgh.539 87
Washington.535 87
Chicago Cubs.526 85
Cleveland.523 85
Arizona.523 85
LA Angels.522 85
Baltimore.519 84
Cincinnati.509 82
Tampa Bay.497 81
Miami.497 81
NY Mets.491 79
Detroit.486 79
Seattle.469 76
Texas.447 72
Boston.447 72
San Diego.436 71
Colorado.434 70
Minnesota.433 70
Milwaukee.431 70
Chicago Sox.423 68
Atlanta.416 67
Philadelphia.342 55

 

Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)



Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .535 St. Louis       .575 LA Dodgers      .606 NY Yankees      .582 Kansas City     .540 Houston         .590
Miami           .497 * Pittsburgh    .539 * San Francisco .556 * Toronto       .569 Cleveland       .523 * Oakland       .557
NY Mets         .491 Chicago Cubs    .526 Arizona         .523 Baltimore       .519 Detroit         .486 LA Angels       .522
Atlanta         .416 Cincinnati      .509 San Diego       .436 Tampa Bay       .497 Minnesota       .433 Seattle         .469
Philadelphia    .342 Milwaukee       .431 Colorado        .434 Boston          .447 Chicago Sox     .423 Texas           .447
           

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .535 St. Louis       .641 LA Dodgers      .563 NY Yankees      .569 Kansas City     .598 Houston         .558
NY Mets         .515 * Pittsburgh    .588 * San Francisco .549 Toronto         .510 * Minnesota     .520 * LA Angels     .539
Atlanta         .447 Chicago Cubs    .539 Arizona         .495 Baltimore       .510 Detroit         .485 Texas           .490
Miami           .408 Cincinnati      .455 San Diego       .485 Tampa Bay       .490 Chicago Sox     .485 Seattle         .452
Philadelphia    .385 Milwaukee       .423 Colorado        .426 Boston          .442 Cleveland       .471 Oakland         .433
           


 

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the HBH formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources--actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games--"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column--"Seasonal"--is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.


Team Performance Stats Table

Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona101 465 448 444 435 50 52 -2 53 -3 -5
Atlanta103 382 377 452 437 46 44 2 43 3 5
Baltimore102 425 448 409 400 52 56 -4 53 -1 -1
Boston104 441 432 490 500 46 45 1 47 -1 0
Chicago Cubs102 410 392 389 388 55 51 4 54 1 2
Chicago Sox101 375 372 438 431 49 43 6 43 6 11
Cincinnati101 454 409 446 449 46 46 0 51 -5 -8
Cleveland102 419 397 400 432 48 47 1 53 -5 -9
Colorado101 468 461 534 525 43 44 -1 44 -1 -1
Detroit103 479 462 493 496 50 48 2 50 0 0
Houston104 452 460 377 384 58 61 -3 61 -3 -6
Kansas City102 432 440 399 379 61 58 3 55 6 10
LA Angels102 412 434 394 386 55 57 -2 53 2 2
LA Dodgers103 448 428 362 365 58 59 -1 62 -4 -7
Miami103 389 367 391 403 42 47 -5 51 -9 -15
Milwaukee104 401 406 460 458 44 46 -2 45 -1 -1
Minnesota102 397 434 454 434 53 51 2 44 9 14
NY Mets103 370 365 377 371 53 51 2 51 2 4
NY Yankees102 504 498 428 441 58 57 1 59 -1 -2
Oakland104 425 432 379 399 45 56-11 58-13 -20
Philadelphia104 391 374 538 509 40 37 3 36 4 7
Pittsburgh102 430 423 398 373 60 57 3 55 5 8
San Diego103 388 401 441 449 50 46 4 45 5 8
Seattle104 405 379 431 439 47 45 2 49 -2 -3
San Francisco102 451 440 403 389 56 57 -1 57 -1 -1
St. Louis103 430 413 370 300 66 67 -1 59 7 11
Tampa Bay104 383 372 385 387 51 50 1 52 -1 -2
Texas102 449 448 499 489 50 47 3 46 4 7
Toronto104 494 550 430 446 53 62 -9 59 -6 -9
Washington101 415 420 387 388 54 54 0 54 0 0


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP15.7 runs3.7%3.4 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP13.1 runs3.3%3.9 runs
Games Won from R/OR2.73 wins----0.07 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP3.7 wins----0.1 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence--that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 15.5 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.



  Sponsored link/s:


  Sponsored link/s:





You loaded this page on Saturday, 1 August 2015, at 9:50 am EDT;
it was last modified on Saturday, 1 August 2015, at 9:01 am EDT.

Site Mechanics:

Search this site:


Custom Search
(the usual Google search rules apply)


Site Directory:

 This site's Front Page
 Late News about the site



(team and player performance evaluations, updated daily)
The Performance Stats:
    Team Measures:
    Player Measures:

(meanings and explanations of the things on this site)
Baseball-Analysis Background:
    For You Rookies:
 what this site is all about--what it is telling you about baseball, and how, and why
    Some Baseball Analysis Theory:
 a semi-technical backgrounding on modern baseball analysis
    Baseball Stat Definitions:
 the standard and the unique statistics we present
    The "Quality of Pitching" Measures:
 why they are the best way to evaluate pitching
    The SillyBall:
 why baseball before and after 1993 is really two different games
    Fielding and Defense in Baseball
 how important defense is or isn't in baseball, and how to correctly evaluate it
    Baseball Data Normalization:
 why raw stats need "correction", and how and why we can and cannot apply it
    "Steroids" and Other "Performance-Enhancing Drugs":
 why just about everything you think you know about them is wrong
(now a full-fledged site of its own)



(miscellaneous but not unimportant)
Some Miscellaneous Information:
    The Team-Performance Table
 there is a lot in that Table, and this explains what it all is
    The HBH Baseball-Analysis Formula Tested
 what we get when we apply it to half a century of team stats
    The Pitfalls of Park Factors
 an explicit, detailed demonstration of how and why they are so dubious
    About High Boskage House
 who we are and why we might know what we're talking about
    Links About Eric Walker
 links to baseball-related pages concerning the webmaster here
    Links To A Select Few Other Useful Baseball Sites
 including those that link to this one



(new, used--find any book, anywhere in the world)
The High Boskage House Baseball Shop:
    What Makes This "Baseball Shop" Special:
    Baseball Books Available Today:


Site Info:

owl logo This site is one of The Owlcroft Company family of web sites. Please click on the link (or the owl) to see a menu of our other diverse user-friendly, helpful sites.       Pair Networks logo Like all our sites, this one is hosted at the highly regarded Pair Networks, whom we strongly recommend. We invite you to click on the Pair link (or their logo) for more information on getting your site or sites hosted on a first-class service.
All Owlcroft systems run on Ubuntu Linux and we heartily recommend it to everyone--click on the link for more information.

Comments? Criticisms? Questions?

Please, e-mail me by clicking here.

(Or, if you cannot email from your browser, send mail to webmaster@highboskage.com)

All content copyright © 1999 - 2015 The Owlcroft Company.

This web page is strictly compliant with the W3C (World Wide Web Consortium)
Extensible HyperText Markup Language (XHTML) Protocol v1.0 (Transitional).
Click on the logo below to test us!

So if your browser experiences any difficulties with this page(or, really, even if it doesn't seem to),
just click on the logo below to find out all about (and even get)--


Get the Firefox browser!
(It's free!)



---=== end of page ===---