Teams Ranked by Manifested AbilityAll results are from true, unadjusted data. The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and--although there are a few words farther below on this page--we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables. Seasonal Win Projections"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are," which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.)
Projected StandingsThis Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)
And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):
Full Team Stat ProjectionsExplanation of Table Headings(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the HBH formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources--actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games--"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated). The final column--"Seasonal"--is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window. Team Performance Stats Table
Table Error DataThese are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.
Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence--that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 14.7 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above. |
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Measures calculated by High Boskage House Baseball Operations, using proprietary techniques.
All data soon will be (but is not yet) normalized for park effects and seasonal variations.
(What do you know about OmniKnow?)
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This site is one of The Owlcroft Company family of web sites. Please click on the link (or the owl) to see a menu of our other diverse user-friendly, helpful sites. |
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Site Front Page Late Baseball-Site News and Thoughts |
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Daily Baseball Data: |
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Teams: |
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| Overall Team Performance Stats (win projections and more from actual quality of play to date) | ||
| Player Performance Stats, by Team | ||
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Batters: |
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| Batters by Last Name: A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z | ||
| Batters by Performance (a single all-batters list) | ||
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Batters by Positions Played:
alphabetically: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP | RP by batting performance: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP | RP |
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Pitchers: |
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| Pitchers by Last Name: A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z | ||
| Pitchers by Performance (a single all-pitchers list) | ||
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Pitchers by Role:
alphabetically: Starters | Relievers by pitching performance: Starters | Relievers |
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Other Statistical Data: |
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| "Regular" Players, Starting Pitchers, and Relief Pitchers, by Performance | ||
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Team
Defense (and its projected consequences)
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Baseball "White Papers"--meanings and explanations of the things on this site |
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General Background: |
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| For You Rookies: what this site is all about--what it is telling you about baseball, and how, and why | ||
| Some Baseball Analysis Theory: a semi-technical backgrounding on modern baseball analysis | ||
| Baseball Stat Definitions: the standard and the unique statistics we present here, defined | ||
| Baseball Data Normalization: how we correct for what, and why we need to | ||
| The "Quality of Pitching" Measures: why they are the best way to evaluate pitching performance | ||
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"Steroids":
why just about everything you think you know about them is wrong Now a site of its own! steroids-and-baseball.com (the link above gets you there) |
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| "The SillyBall": why baseball before and after 1993 is really two different games | ||
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About Particular Pages Here: |
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| The Team-Performance Table: there is a lot in that Table, and this explains what it all is | ||
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The Team-Defense
Table: how important defense is or isn't in baseball, and how to
correctly evaluate it
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Miscellaneous--but not unimportant |
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| About High Boskage House: who we are and why we might know what we're talking about regarding baseball | ||
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Links To A Select Few
Other Useful Baseball Sites (including those that link to this one)
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The High Boskage House Baseball Shop (which offers more than baseball books--in fact, more than just books) |
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What Makes This "Baseball Shop" Special: |
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| Finding Books About Baseball Topics: we've already done it for you, and our list is updated daily | ||
| Search For Any New Book at Amazon (which is, after all, the cheapest place to buy books new) | ||
| Search For Any Used Book at Abebooks (which is the easiest place on the internet to find any used book) | ||
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Search For Anything at
All at Amazon: nowadays, they're a lot more than just books
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| Baseball Books Available Today: | ||
| A Master Baseball-Books List (plain text your browser can easily "search") | ||
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Baseball Books By Title:
(because so many baseball book titles begin with the word "baseball", those are broken out separately in the title lists below) A | B | "Baseball" | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z | other |
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