The High Boskage House Baseball-Analysis Web Site
baseball team and player performance examined realistically and accurately

  email me search site site directory  

2014 Major-League Team Performance Results

Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games as shown in the Tables.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and--although there are a few words farther below on this page--we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Oakland.643104
LA Angels.617100
Washington.585 95
LA Dodgers.574 93
Seattle.550 89
Detroit.538 87
Toronto.534 86
Pittsburgh.527 85
Tampa Bay.525 85
St. Louis.520 84
Baltimore.516 84
San Francisco.516 84
Atlanta.513 83
Milwaukee.513 83
Cleveland.506 82
Cincinnati.499 81
Chicago Sox.490 79
NY Mets.485 79
Miami.472 76
Kansas City.472 76
Chicago Cubs.471 76
NY Yankees.469 76
Colorado.459 74
Minnesota.459 74
Boston.445 72
Philadelphia.444 72
Arizona.441 71
San Diego.431 70
Houston.420 68
Texas.379 61

 

Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)



Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .585 Pittsburgh      .527 LA Dodgers      .574 Toronto         .534 Detroit         .538 Oakland         .643
Atlanta         .513 * St. Louis     .520 * San Francisco .516 * Tampa Bay     .525 Cleveland       .506 * LA Angels     .617
NY Mets         .485 Milwaukee       .513 Colorado        .459 Baltimore       .516 Chicago Sox     .490 Seattle         .550
Miami           .472 Cincinnati      .499 Arizona         .441 NY Yankees      .469 Kansas City     .472 Houston         .420
Philadelphia    .444 Chicago Cubs    .471 San Diego       .431 Boston          .445 Minnesota       .459 Texas           .379
           

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .552 Milwaukee       .550 LA Dodgers      .565 Baltimore       .566 Detroit         .558 Oakland         .617
* Atlanta       .537 * Pittsburgh    .533 San Francisco   .532 * Toronto       .541 Kansas City     .509 * LA Angels     .594
Miami           .495 St. Louis       .528 San Diego       .449 NY Yankees      .514 Cleveland       .495 Seattle         .514
NY Mets         .481 Cincinnati      .495 Arizona         .435 Tampa Bay       .491 Chicago Sox     .481 Houston         .407
Philadelphia    .435 Chicago Cubs    .415 Colorado        .407 Boston          .444 Minnesota       .453 Texas           .398
           


 

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the HBH formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources--actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games--"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column--"Seasonal"--is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.


Team Performance Stats Table

Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona108 441 430 496 502 47 46 1 48 -1 0
Atlanta108 429 414 418 393 58 57 1 55 3 4
Baltimore106 464 452 449 421 60 56 4 55 5 8
Boston108 427 412 477 467 48 48 0 48 0 0
Chicago Cubs106 409 409 433 457 44 47 -3 50 -6 -9
Chicago Sox108 462 467 471 482 52 52 0 53 -1 -1
Cincinnati107 408 401 409 392 53 55 -2 53 0 -1
Cleveland107 472 474 466 469 53 54 -1 54 -1 -2
Colorado108 514 507 558 559 44 49 -5 50 -6 -8
Detroit104 476 487 441 446 58 56 2 56 2 3
Houston108 431 419 506 518 44 43 1 45 -1 -2
Kansas City106 417 420 441 421 54 53 1 50 4 7
LA Angels106 496 517 392 428 63 62 1 65 -2 -4
LA Dodgers108 478 453 412 394 61 61 0 62 -1 -1
Miami107 445 442 471 460 53 51 2 50 3 4
Milwaukee109 457 471 445 442 60 58 2 56 4 6
Minnesota106 431 432 468 474 48 48 0 49 -1 -1
NY Mets108 427 423 440 409 52 56 -4 52 0 -1
NY Yankees107 443 429 471 459 55 50 5 50 5 7
Oakland107 503 535 377 373 66 71 -5 69 -3 -4
Philadelphia108 437 416 489 484 47 46 1 48 -1 -1
Pittsburgh107 479 445 454 442 57 54 3 56 1 1
San Diego107 335 338 385 366 48 49 -1 46 2 3
Seattle107 397 408 359 356 55 60 -5 59 -4 -6
San Francisco109 413 421 400 400 58 57 1 56 2 2
St. Louis106 405 387 389 389 56 53 3 55 1 2
Tampa Bay108 445 421 423 425 53 53 0 57 -4 -5
Texas108 429 437 547 554 43 42 1 41 2 4
Toronto109 519 506 485 463 59 59 0 58 1 2
Washington105 442 438 373 366 58 61 -3 61 -3 -6


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP11.9 runs2.7%4 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP12 runs2.8%4.5 runs
Games Won from R/OR1.93 wins---0 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP2.33 wins---0 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence--that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 15.8 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.






You loaded this page on Thursday, 31 July 2014, at 1:34 pm EDT;
it was last modified on Thursday, 31 July 2014, at 9:01 am EDT.

Site Mechanics:

Search this site:


Custom Search
(the usual Google search rules apply)


Site Directory:

 This site's Front Page
 Late News about the site



(team and player performance evaluations, updated daily)
The Performance Stats:
    Team Measures:
    Player Measures:

(meanings and explanations of the things on this site)
Baseball-Analysis Background:
    For You Rookies:
 what this site is all about--what it is telling you about baseball, and how, and why
    Some Baseball Analysis Theory:
 a semi-technical backgrounding on modern baseball analysis
    Baseball Stat Definitions:
 the standard and the unique statistics we present
    The "Quality of Pitching" Measures:
 why they are the best way to evaluate pitching
    The SillyBall:
 why baseball before and after 1993 is really two different games
    Fielding and Defense in Baseball
 how important defense is or isn't in baseball, and how to correctly evaluate it
    Baseball Data Normalization:
 why raw stats need "correction", and how and why we can and cannot apply it
    "Steroids" and Other "Performance-Enhancing Drugs":
 why just about everything you think you know about them is wrong
(now a full-fledged site of its own)



(miscellaneous but not unimportant)
Some Miscellaneous Information:
    The Team-Performance Table
 there is a lot in that Table, and this explains what it all is
    The HBH Baseball-Analysis Formula Tested
 what we get when we apply it to half a century of team stats
    The Pitfalls of Park Factors
 an explicit, detailed demonstration of how and why they are so dubious
    About High Boskage House
 who we are and why we might know what we're talking about
    Links About Eric Walker
 links to baseball-related pages concerning the webmaster here
    Links To A Select Few Other Useful Baseball Sites
 including those that link to this one



(new, used--find any book, anywhere in the world)
The High Boskage House Baseball Shop:
    What Makes This "Baseball Shop" Special:
    Baseball Books Available Today:


Site Info:

owl logo This site is one of The Owlcroft Company family of web sites. Please click on the link (or the owl) to see a menu of our other diverse user-friendly, helpful sites.       Pair Networks logo Like all our sites, this one is hosted at the highly regarded Pair Networks, whom we strongly recommend. We invite you to click on the Pair link (or their logo) for more information on getting your site or sites hosted on a first-class service.
All Owlcroft systems run on Ubuntu Linux and we heartily recommend it to everyone--click on the link for more information.

Comments? Criticisms? Questions?

Please, e-mail me by clicking here.

(Or, if you cannot email from your browser, send mail to webmaster@highboskage.com)

All content copyright © 1999 - 2014 The Owlcroft Company.

This web page is strictly compliant with the W3C (World Wide Web Consortium)
Extensible HyperText Markup Language (XHTML) Protocol v1.0 (Transitional).
Click on the logo below to test us!

So if your browser experiences any difficulties with this page(or, really, even if it doesn't seem to),
just click on the logo below to find out all about (and even get)--


Get the Firefox browser!
(It's free!)



---=== end of page ===---