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2014 Major-League Team Performance Results

Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games as shown in the Tables.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and--although there are a few words farther below on this page--we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Oakland.626101
LA Angels.600 97
Washington.587 95
LA Dodgers.573 93
Seattle.567 92
Baltimore.541 88
Tampa Bay.539 87
Detroit.528 86
Pittsburgh.528 85
San Francisco.525 85
Milwaukee.518 84
Toronto.518 84
Cleveland.511 83
St. Louis.508 82
Kansas City.500 81
Cincinnati.499 81
Atlanta.496 80
Chicago Cubs.483 78
Miami.476 77
NY Yankees.475 77
Minnesota.463 75
Colorado.460 75
Chicago Sox.458 74
San Diego.455 74
NY Mets.452 73
Philadelphia.452 73
Houston.437 71
Arizona.435 71
Boston.434 70
Texas.376 61

 

Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)



Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .587 Pittsburgh      .528 LA Dodgers      .573 Baltimore       .541 Detroit         .528 Oakland         .626
Atlanta         .496 * Milwaukee     .518 * San Francisco .525 * Tampa Bay     .539 Cleveland       .511 * LA Angels     .600
Miami           .476 St. Louis       .508 Colorado        .460 Toronto         .518 Kansas City     .500 Seattle         .567
NY Mets         .452 Cincinnati      .499 San Diego       .455 NY Yankees      .475 Minnesota       .463 Houston         .437
Philadelphia    .452 Chicago Cubs    .483 Arizona         .435 Boston          .434 Chicago Sox     .458 Texas           .376
           

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .569 Milwaukee       .560 LA Dodgers      .556 Baltimore       .577 Kansas City     .556 LA Angels       .593
Atlanta         .520 * St. Louis     .540 * San Francisco .524 NY Yankees      .516 * Detroit       .541 * Oakland       .589
Miami           .500 Pittsburgh      .512 San Diego       .472 Toronto         .512 Cleveland       .504 Seattle         .540
NY Mets         .468 Cincinnati      .488 Arizona         .424 Tampa Bay       .492 Chicago Sox     .472 Houston         .416
Philadelphia    .440 Chicago Cubs    .435 Colorado        .392 Boston          .452 Minnesota       .447 Texas           .387
           


 

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the HBH formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources--actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games--"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column--"Seasonal"--is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.


Team Performance Stats Table

Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona125 505 494 575 586 53 52 1 54 -1 -2
Atlanta125 492 470 496 463 65 63 2 62 3 4
Baltimore123 546 531 503 471 71 68 3 67 4 6
Boston124 482 477 550 535 56 55 1 54 2 3
Chicago Cubs124 474 472 490 521 54 56 -2 60 -6 -7
Chicago Sox125 529 534 575 595 59 56 3 57 2 2
Cincinnati125 481 481 482 463 61 65 -4 62 -1 -2
Cleveland123 533 534 521 521 62 63 -1 63 -1 -1
Colorado125 591 583 640 652 49 56 -7 58 -9 -11
Detroit122 553 556 523 522 66 65 1 64 2 2
Houston125 509 501 577 592 52 53 -1 55 -3 -4
Kansas City124 496 513 496 482 69 66 3 62 7 9
LA Angels123 555 578 454 489 73 71 2 74 -1 -1
LA Dodgers126 544 513 470 463 70 69 1 72 -2 -3
Miami124 503 499 528 525 62 59 3 59 3 4
Milwaukee125 522 539 504 495 70 67 3 65 5 7
Minnesota123 520 519 560 562 55 57 -2 57 -2 -3
NY Mets126 470 475 517 482 59 62 -3 57 2 3
NY Yankees122 497 481 522 518 63 57 6 58 5 7
Oakland124 563 597 437 436 73 80 -7 78 -5 -6
Philadelphia125 505 482 556 557 55 54 1 56 -1 -2
Pittsburgh125 559 526 529 524 64 63 1 66 -2 -2
San Diego123 407 407 445 417 58 60 -2 56 2 2
Seattle124 468 491 409 395 67 75 -8 70 -3 -4
San Francisco124 474 481 451 451 65 66 -1 65 0 0
St. Louis124 479 467 471 474 67 61 6 63 4 6
Tampa Bay124 514 492 475 469 61 65 -4 67 -6 -7
Texas124 485 494 622 629 48 48 0 47 1 2
Toronto125 581 558 560 549 64 63 1 65 -1 -1
Washington123 519 519 436 426 70 73 -3 72 -2 -3


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP12.7 runs2.5%3.1 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP12.8 runs2.6%3.7 runs
Games Won from R/OR2.77 wins----0.23 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP2.93 wins----0.13 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence--that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 17 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.






You loaded this page on Wednesday, 20 August 2014, at 12:51 am EDT;
it was last modified on Tuesday, 19 August 2014, at 9:01 am EDT.

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