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2014 Major-League Team Performance Results

Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games as shown in the Tables.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and--although there are a few words farther below on this page--we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Atlanta.716116
Oakland.674109
Milwaukee.645104
Colorado.644104
Cincinnati.591 96
LA Angels.583 94
Tampa Bay.568 92
Miami.543 88
Detroit.530 86
LA Dodgers.525 85
Minnesota.523 85
Washington.522 85
San Diego.516 84
Texas.511 83
Chicago Sox.510 83
St. Louis.507 82
NY Yankees.500 81
Cleveland.482 78
Pittsburgh.472 76
Toronto.463 75
Kansas City.454 74
Seattle.451 73
San Francisco.449 73
Boston.446 72
Baltimore.419 68
Chicago Cubs.409 66
Philadelphia.397 64
NY Mets.377 61
Arizona.324 52
Houston.288 47

 

Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)



Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Atlanta         .716 Milwaukee       .645 Colorado        .644 Tampa Bay       .568 Detroit         .530 Oakland         .674
Miami           .543 * Cincinnati    .591 LA Dodgers      .525 NY Yankees      .500 Minnesota       .523 * LA Angels     .583
Washington      .522 St. Louis       .507 San Diego       .516 Toronto         .463 Chicago Sox     .510 Texas           .511
Philadelphia    .397 Pittsburgh      .472 San Francisco   .449 Boston          .446 Cleveland       .482 Seattle         .451
NY Mets         .377 Chicago Cubs    .409 Arizona         .324 Baltimore       .419 Kansas City     .454 Houston         .288
           

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Atlanta         .684 Milwaukee       .750 LA Dodgers      .600 NY Yankees      .579 Detroit         .563 Oakland         .684
* Washington    .550 St. Louis       .550 San Francisco   .550 Toronto         .526 Minnesota       .500 * Texas         .600
NY Mets         .526 Pittsburgh      .450 Colorado        .524 Baltimore       .500 Kansas City     .500 LA Angels       .474
Philadelphia    .474 Cincinnati      .421 San Diego       .450 Tampa Bay       .474 Chicago Sox     .500 Seattle         .368
Miami           .450 Chicago Cubs    .333 Arizona         .227 Boston          .450 Cleveland       .474 Houston         .300
           


 

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the HBH formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources--actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games--"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column--"Seasonal"--is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.


Team Performance Stats Table

Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona 22 84 79 120 134 5 6 -1 7 -2 -15
Atlanta 19 90 76 58 51 13 13 0 14 -1 -5
Baltimore 18 74 78 87 77 9 9 0 8 1 13
Boston 20 79 76 88 82 9 9 0 9 0 1
Chicago Cubs 18 70 63 84 77 6 7 -1 7 -1 -12
Chicago Sox 20 101 109 99 107 10 10 0 10 0 -2
Cincinnati 19 90 79 75 68 8 11 -3 11 -3 -28
Cleveland 19 83 81 86 87 9 9 0 9 0 -1
Colorado 21 111 114 83 95 11 12 -1 14 -3 -19
Detroit 16 68 63 64 64 9 8 1 8 1 5
Houston 20 63 59 97 95 6 6 0 6 0 2
Kansas City 18 62 63 68 69 9 8 1 8 1 7
LA Angels 19 98 101 83 86 9 11 -2 11 -2 -17
LA Dodgers 20 81 81 77 73 12 11 1 11 1 12
Miami 20 96 96 88 85 9 11 -2 11 -2 -15
Milwaukee 20 91 85 68 66 15 12 3 13 2 18
Minnesota 18 90 98 86 91 9 10 -1 9 0 -4
NY Mets 19 71 79 91 84 10 9 1 7 3 24
NY Yankees 19 83 75 83 84 11 8 3 10 1 13
Oakland 19 98 90 69 59 13 13 0 13 0 2
Philadelphia 19 83 82 102 96 9 8 1 8 1 13
Pittsburgh 20 87 86 92 84 9 10 -1 9 0 -3
San Diego 20 64 56 62 64 9 9 0 10 -1 -11
Seattle 19 68 69 75 75 7 9 -2 9 -2 -13
San Francisco 20 75 80 83 77 11 10 1 9 2 16
St. Louis 20 72 74 71 65 11 11 0 10 1 7
Tampa Bay 19 79 75 69 74 9 10 -1 11 -2 -15
Texas 20 90 86 88 91 12 9 3 10 2 14
Toronto 19 77 78 83 74 10 10 0 9 1 10
Washington 20 91 88 87 85 11 10 1 10 1 4


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP4.6 runs5.9%1.7 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP5.2 runs6.6%1.6 runs
Games Won from R/OR1.03 wins---0.03 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP1.23 wins----0.03 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence--that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 6.7 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.






You loaded this page on Wednesday, 23 April 2014, at 5:13 am EDT;
it was last modified on Tuesday, 22 April 2014, at 9:01 am EDT.

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