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2015 Major-League Team Performance Results

Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games as shown in the Tables.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and--although there are a few words farther below on this page--we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Kansas City.687111
LA Dodgers.679110
Detroit.625101
Houston.582 94
St. Louis.576 93
Tampa Bay.564 91
Chicago Cubs.558 90
Washington.543 88
Oakland.542 88
San Francisco.542 88
NY Yankees.540 88
Baltimore.527 85
Arizona.518 84
Pittsburgh.513 83
Cleveland.503 81
Toronto.490 79
Miami.485 79
Seattle.477 77
Cincinnati.475 77
NY Mets.471 76
Texas.467 76
Atlanta.447 72
LA Angels.439 71
Boston.435 70
Minnesota.406 66
Colorado.405 66
Philadelphia.397 64
San Diego.392 64
Chicago Sox.376 61
Milwaukee.351 57

 

Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)



Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .543 St. Louis       .576 LA Dodgers      .679 Tampa Bay       .564 Kansas City     .687 Houston         .582
Miami           .485 * Chicago Cubs  .558 * San Francisco .542 NY Yankees      .540 * Detroit       .625 * Oakland       .542
NY Mets         .471 Pittsburgh      .513 Arizona         .518 Baltimore       .527 Cleveland       .503 Seattle         .477
Atlanta         .447 Cincinnati      .475 Colorado        .405 Toronto         .490 Minnesota       .406 Texas           .467
Philadelphia    .397 Milwaukee       .351 San Diego       .392 Boston          .435 Chicago Sox     .376 LA Angels       .439
           

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .581 St. Louis       .628 LA Dodgers      .619 Tampa Bay       .545 Kansas City     .667 Houston         .636
NY Mets         .545 * Chicago Cubs  .571 * San Francisco .568 * NY Yankees    .512 * Detroit       .591 LA Angels       .512
Atlanta         .500 Pittsburgh      .476 Arizona         .476 Baltimore       .475 Minnesota       .571 Seattle         .476
Philadelphia    .422 Cincinnati      .429 San Diego       .455 Boston          .465 Chicago Sox     .475 Texas           .465
Miami           .386 Milwaukee       .364 Colorado        .390 Toronto         .422 Cleveland       .452 Oakland         .333
           


 

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the HBH formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources--actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games--"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column--"Seasonal"--is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.


Team Performance Stats Table

Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona 42 194 200 187 189 20 22 -2 22 -2 -7
Atlanta 42 161 177 179 182 21 20 1 19 2 9
Baltimore 40 171 180 162 173 19 21 -2 21 -2 -8
Boston 43 180 170 205 207 20 17 3 19 1 5
Chicago Cubs 42 191 182 170 177 24 22 2 23 1 3
Chicago Sox 40 141 146 181 180 19 16 3 15 4 16
Cincinnati 42 173 158 182 190 18 17 1 20 -2 -8
Cleveland 42 186 181 185 191 19 20 -1 21 -2 -8
Colorado 41 172 171 208 219 16 16 0 17 -1 -3
Detroit 44 212 192 165 173 26 24 2 27 -1 -5
Houston 44 184 192 156 167 28 25 3 26 2 9
Kansas City 42 203 210 139 140 28 29 -1 29 -1 -3
LA Angels 43 145 166 164 165 22 22 0 19 3 12
LA Dodgers 42 201 190 140 139 26 27 -1 29 -3 -10
Miami 44 169 168 174 187 17 20 -3 21 -4 -16
Milwaukee 44 154 169 208 219 16 17 -1 15 1 2
Minnesota 42 164 189 198 183 24 22 2 17 7 27
NY Mets 44 151 161 160 154 24 23 1 21 3 12
NY Yankees 43 193 192 178 192 22 21 1 23 -1 -5
Oakland 45 197 192 181 204 15 21 -6 24 -9 -34
Philadelphia 45 161 145 198 195 19 16 3 18 1 4
Pittsburgh 42 160 166 156 148 20 23 -3 22 -2 -6
San Diego 44 170 182 211 203 20 20 0 17 3 10
Seattle 42 167 159 175 173 20 19 1 20 0 0
San Francisco 44 198 179 182 166 25 24 1 24 1 4
St. Louis 43 190 183 163 133 27 28 -1 25 2 9
Tampa Bay 44 174 170 153 151 24 24 0 25 -1 -3
Texas 43 190 191 203 197 20 21 -1 20 0 -1
Toronto 45 201 228 205 214 19 24 -5 22 -3 -11
Washington 43 193 208 177 186 25 24 1 23 2 6


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP10.5 runs5.8%-1.7 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP8.3 runs4.7%-1.7 runs
Games Won from R/OR1.73 wins----0.07 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP2.23 wins----0.03 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence--that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 10.1 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.






You loaded this page on Monday, 25 May 2015, at 3:06 am EDT;
it was last modified on Sunday, 24 May 2015, at 9:01 am EDT.

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