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2013 Major-League Team Performance Results

Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games as shown in the Tables.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and--although there are a few words farther below on this page--we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Detroit.669108
Texas.626101
Cleveland.600 97
Cincinnati.593 96
Boston.592 96
Colorado.592 96
Atlanta.578 94
St. Louis.557 90
Arizona.555 90
NY Yankees.545 88
Baltimore.542 88
Pittsburgh.541 88
Chicago Cubs.532 86
Tampa Bay.520 84
Oakland.517 84
Kansas City.509 82
San Francisco.507 82
Seattle.487 79
Chicago Sox.482 78
LA Dodgers.477 77
San Diego.466 75
Milwaukee.457 74
NY Mets.446 72
Minnesota.427 69
Washington.425 69
Philadelphia.406 66
LA Angels.400 65
Toronto.383 62
Miami.300 49
Houston.265 43

 

Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)



Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Atlanta         .578 Cincinnati      .593 Colorado        .592 Boston          .592 Detroit         .669 Texas           .626
NY Mets         .446 * St. Louis     .557 Arizona         .555 NY Yankees      .545 * Cleveland     .600 Oakland         .517
Washington      .425 Pittsburgh      .541 San Francisco   .507 Baltimore       .542 Kansas City     .509 Seattle         .487
Philadelphia    .406 Chicago Cubs    .532 LA Dodgers      .477 Tampa Bay       .520 Chicago Sox     .482 LA Angels       .400
Miami           .300 Milwaukee       .457 San Diego       .466 Toronto         .383 Minnesota       .427 Houston         .265
           

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Atlanta         .591 St. Louis       .636 Arizona         .578 NY Yankees      .636 Cleveland       .605 Texas           .644
Washington      .511 * Cincinnati    .600 San Francisco   .556 * Boston        .600 Detroit         .548 Oakland         .522
Philadelphia    .467 Pittsburgh      .591 Colorado        .533 Tampa Bay       .523 Kansas City     .488 Seattle         .444
NY Mets         .405 Chicago Cubs    .419 San Diego       .477 Baltimore       .523 Chicago Sox     .465 LA Angels       .386
Miami           .289 Milwaukee       .395 LA Dodgers      .419 Toronto         .409 Minnesota       .439 Houston         .289
           


 

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the HBH formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources--actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games--"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column--"Seasonal"--is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.


Team Performance Stats Table

Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona 45 192 185 172 156 26 26 0 25 1 4
Atlanta 44 194 191 166 153 26 27 -1 25 1 2
Baltimore 44 211 217 194 201 23 24 -1 24 -1 -3
Boston 45 225 221 187 185 27 26 1 27 0 1
Chicago Cubs 43 177 173 166 176 18 21 -3 23 -5 -18
Chicago Sox 43 160 161 166 174 20 20 0 21 -1 -3
Cincinnati 45 211 214 175 164 27 28 -1 27 0 1
Cleveland 43 225 218 184 181 26 25 1 26 0 1
Colorado 45 226 222 188 194 24 25 -1 27 -3 -10
Detroit 42 225 222 160 175 23 26 -3 28 -5 -19
Houston 45 173 179 279 266 13 14 -1 12 1 4
Kansas City 41 170 176 167 163 20 22 -2 21 -1 -3
LA Angels 44 190 189 232 227 17 18 -1 18 -1 -2
LA Dodgers 43 167 145 175 181 18 17 1 20 -2 -9
Miami 45 130 122 195 191 13 13 0 14 -1 -2
Milwaukee 43 188 178 205 210 17 18 -1 20 -3 -10
Minnesota 41 172 181 199 196 18 19 -1 18 0 2
NY Mets 42 168 177 187 206 17 18 -1 19 -2 -6
NY Yankees 44 196 190 179 163 28 25 3 24 4 15
Oakland 46 211 216 204 206 24 24 0 24 0 1
Philadelphia 45 163 157 197 195 21 18 3 18 3 10
Pittsburgh 44 179 176 165 157 26 24 2 24 2 8
San Diego 44 184 180 197 190 21 21 0 20 1 2
Seattle 45 183 168 188 190 20 20 0 22 -2 -7
San Francisco 45 203 210 200 207 25 23 2 23 2 8
St. Louis 44 177 203 158 154 28 28 0 24 4 13
Tampa Bay 44 205 215 197 204 23 23 0 23 0 1
Texas 45 224 214 174 167 29 28 1 28 1 3
Toronto 44 182 184 230 227 18 18 0 17 1 4
Washington 45 154 155 179 180 23 19 4 19 4 14


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP6.9 runs3.8%0.9 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP7.2 runs4%0.9 runs
Games Won from R/OR1.17 wins---0.03 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP1.73 wins----0.07 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence--that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 10.3 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.






You loaded this page on Wednesday, 22 May 2013, at 5:48 am EDT;
it was last modified on Tuesday, 21 May 2013, at 9:01 am EDT.

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