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2014 Major-League Team Performance Results

Teams Ranked by Manifested Ability

Through games as shown in the Tables.
All results are from true, unadjusted data.

The significance of the data in these Tables is not necessarily obvious at a glance. There is a complete explanation of all these Tables and the meaning of their entries available, and--although there are a few words farther below on this page--we much recommend that you read that full explanation before examining these Tables.


Seasonal Win Projections

"Manifested ability" means how well the teams have actually played so far this season; it does not mean "how good they really are", which is quite another matter. The projected wins assume the teams will each play the full season at the same performance level as they have exhibited so far; early on, that may be unlikely, but the farther into the season it gets, the more likely that assumption is to be true. (Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.)

All Teams, by Performance
Team
TOP/TPP Projected
Win Percentage
TOP/TPP Projected
Seasonal Wins
Oakland.641104
LA Angels.621101
Washington.587 95
LA Dodgers.564 91
Seattle.557 90
Detroit.543 88
St. Louis.539 87
San Francisco.536 87
Pittsburgh.526 85
Atlanta.521 84
Cincinnati.518 84
Baltimore.515 83
Tampa Bay.513 83
Milwaukee.504 82
Toronto.503 82
Cleveland.500 81
NY Mets.484 78
Chicago Sox.481 78
Boston.476 77
Kansas City.475 77
NY Yankees.470 76
Minnesota.468 76
Chicago Cubs.467 76
Miami.459 74
Colorado.449 73
Arizona.444 72
Philadelphia.438 71
Houston.433 70
San Diego.409 66
Texas.374 61

 

Projected Standings

This Table merely sorts the results above by Division. It is not a "prediction" of how the races will end up: it is an assessment of how things would stand now if not for luck (as opposed to performance). It is a "prediction" only to the extent that if all teams continued to play from now till the end of the season at exactly the same level of performance they have exhibited so far, which is unlikely, this is how things would most probably turn out.

(The asterisks * denote the Wild Card teams.)



Projected (not actual) Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .587 St. Louis       .539 LA Dodgers      .564 Baltimore       .515 Detroit         .543 Oakland         .641
Atlanta         .521 * Pittsburgh    .526 * San Francisco .536 * Tampa Bay     .513 Cleveland       .500 * LA Angels     .621
NY Mets         .484 Cincinnati      .518 Colorado        .449 Toronto         .503 Chicago Sox     .481 Seattle         .557
Miami           .459 Milwaukee       .504 Arizona         .444 Boston          .476 Kansas City     .475 Houston         .433
Philadelphia    .438 Chicago Cubs    .467 San Diego       .409 NY Yankees      .470 Minnesota       .468 Texas           .374
           

And, for comparison (these may be far off early in the season, but should look closer to the above in late season):

Actual Current Standings
National League American League
East Central West East Central West
Washington      .557 Milwaukee       .550 LA Dodgers      .554 Baltimore       .551 Detroit         .573 Oakland         .622
Atlanta         .545 * St. Louis     .545 * San Francisco .550 * Toronto       .510 Cleveland       .505 * LA Angels     .602
Miami           .469 Pittsburgh      .525 San Diego       .439 NY Yankees      .510 Kansas City     .490 Seattle         .535
NY Mets         .465 Cincinnati      .515 Arizona         .430 Boston          .475 Chicago Sox     .480 Houston         .414
Philadelphia    .434 Chicago Cubs    .412 Colorado        .400 Tampa Bay       .470 Minnesota       .459 Texas           .404
           


 

Full Team Stat Projections

Explanation of Table Headings

(This is just a summary; a much more detailed discussion of this Table and its significance is available.)

The TOP and TPP columns are the team runs scored and allowed, respectively, calculated by the HBH formulae from the actual team stats. The Games-Won columns are calculated from the respective indicated sources--actual runs scored and allowed, and calculated ("TP") runs scored and allowed. The "error" columns show the differences between calculated games-won values (rounded to whole numbers) and the actual team wins total. A minus error means that the team is that many games below expectation, while a positive (unsigned) error means that the team is above expectation by that many games--"expectation" meaning the record that would most often result from scoring and giving up the runs in question (actual or as-calculated).

The final column--"Seasonal"--is the wins-from-calculations deviation in wins pro-rated out to a full 162 games; it is the current "luck rate" of the team. (Keep in mind that as the season wears on the size of these errors will, in almost all cases, steadily diminish as extremes of luck are averaged out.) Each team name is a click-on link to that team's detailed performance page here; the link will open in a new browser window.


Team Performance Stats Table

Team Games
Played
Runs Games Won
Scored Yielded Actual
Wins
Wins Projected From:
TOP Real TPP Real R/OR (Error) TOP/TPP (Error) Seasonal
Arizona100 408 396 456 460 43 43 0 44 -1 -2
Atlanta 99 395 378 379 361 54 52 2 52 2 4
Baltimore 98 441 423 428 400 54 52 2 50 4 6
Boston 99 403 394 423 411 47 47 0 47 0 0
Chicago Cubs 97 369 375 394 413 40 44 -4 45 -5 -9
Chicago Sox100 422 428 438 451 48 47 1 48 0 0
Cincinnati 99 393 385 379 368 51 52 -1 51 0 -1
Cleveland 99 440 441 440 441 50 49 1 50 0 1
Colorado100 470 466 520 527 40 44 -4 45 -5 -8
Detroit 96 448 453 411 411 55 52 3 52 3 5
Houston 99 400 384 457 470 41 40 1 43 -2 -3
Kansas City 98 386 389 406 395 48 48 0 47 1 2
LA Angels 98 476 491 373 403 59 58 1 61 -2 -3
LA Dodgers101 438 417 385 366 56 57 -1 57 -1 -1
Miami 98 409 406 444 432 46 46 0 45 1 2
Milwaukee100 427 439 424 423 55 52 3 50 5 7
Minnesota 98 406 412 433 437 45 46 -1 46 -1 -2
NY Mets 99 394 391 407 381 46 51 -5 48 -2 -3
NY Yankees 98 404 391 429 422 50 45 5 46 4 7
Oakland 98 456 485 343 335 61 66 -5 63 -2 -3
Philadelphia 99 391 379 443 436 43 43 0 43 0 -1
Pittsburgh 99 440 405 418 405 52 49 3 52 0 0
San Diego 98 293 291 352 335 43 42 1 40 3 5
Seattle 99 379 393 338 334 53 57 -4 55 -2 -3
San Francisco100 387 396 360 361 55 54 1 54 1 2
St. Louis 99 383 370 354 354 54 51 3 53 1 1
Tampa Bay100 417 393 406 409 47 48 -1 51 -4 -7
Texas 99 396 407 510 515 40 39 1 37 3 4
Toronto100 459 446 456 438 51 51 0 50 1 1
Washington 97 412 409 346 339 54 57 -3 57 -3 -5


Table Error Data

These are the for results in the Table shown above. All deviations are per team.

"Error" Type
(calculated vs. actual)
Absolute size
of "Error"
Percentage size
of "Error"
Cumulative "Error"
(+ and - cancel)
Batting Runs, from TOP11.4 runs2.8%3.6 runs
Pitching Runs, from TPP10.6 runs2.7%4 runs
Games Won from R/OR1.9 wins----0.03 wins
Games Won from TPP/TOP1.97 wins----0.03 wins

Expected deviation ("error") sizes go down as the season goes on, but at a declining rate: the expected error drops with the square root of number of games played (four times as many games played gives twice the confidence--that is, half the error). Errors will be fairly large in the early season, but modest mid-season and small by late season. The size of runs error we should expect about now is roughly 15.2 runs, which you can compare with the actuals above.






You loaded this page on Wednesday, 23 July 2014, at 5:41 am EDT;
it was last modified on Tuesday, 22 July 2014, at 9:01 am EDT.

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